Russia holds the worlds largest natural gas reserves, with 1,680 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)-- nearly twice the reserves in the next largest country, Iran. Accordingly, in 2004 Russia was the worlds largest natural gas producer (22.4 Tcf), as well as the worlds largest exporter (7.1 Tcf). Production during 2005 is predicted to be about the same. However, Russias natural gas industry has not been as successful as its oil industry, with both natural gas production and consumption remaining relatively flat since independence. Moreover, Gazproms natural gas production forecast calls for only modest growth (about 1.3%) by 2008. Russias natural gas sector has been stunted primarily due to aging fields, state regulation, Gazproms monopolistic control over the industry, and insufficient export pipelines. Three major fields (called the Big Three) in Western Siberia--Urengoy, Yamburg, and Medvezhye comprise more than 70% of Gazproms total natural gas production, but these fields are now in decline. Although the company projects increases in its natural gas output between 2008 and 2030, most of Russias natural gas production growth will come from independent gas companies such as Novatek, Itera, and Northgaz.
Historically, the majority of Russias natural gas exports were sent to customers in Eastern Europe. But since the mid 1980s, Russia began looking to diversify its export options. Russia continues to export significant amounts of natural gas to customers in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In addition, Gazprom (through its subsidiary Gazexport) has shifted much of its natural gas exports to serve the rising demand in countries of the EU, as well as Turkey, Japan, and other Asian countries. Russian natural gas exports rose during 2004 from previous years, but the Ministry of Energy expects natural gas exports in 2005 to grow at a slower rate. Last year, Russia exported approximately 7.1 Tcf of natural gas, and Russian Energy Ministry data released at the beginning of 2005 forecasted exports of 7.2 Tcf for 2005. In recent months, Russia insisted on being paid higher prices for its natural gas exports to neighboring CIS countries.As of late December 2005 Russia and Ukraine had not reached an agreement on natural gas supply prices for 2006, and on January 1, 2006, Gazprom shut off gas supplies to Ukraine, with supplies to Europe reportedly also being affected. Even though Russia has used the threat of a cutoff to demand higher natural gas prices in recent years, this was the first time that a supply disruption has affected flows to Europe. Eventually, Russias natural gas company agreed to a sell its natural gas to RosUkrEnergo, a trading company that also imports natural gas from Central Asia, at the market price of $6.51/mcf ($230 per thousand cubic meters). On January 4, 2006, Ukraine signed a five-year agreement to buy 580 Bcf of natural gas from RosUkrEnergo at $2.69/mcf (comprised of less expensive natural gas from Central Asia). In 2005, Ukraine contracted to buy 812 Bcf at $1.41/mcf. In turn, Russia agreed to pay Ukraine natural gas transit fees of 7.3 cents per thousand cubic feet per 100 miles, a 47 percent price increase from 2005. The contracts are also subject to review each year and may be adjusted to new market prices. For Gazprom to fulfill its long-term aim of increasing European sales, it will need to boost its production, as well as to secure more reliable export routes to the region. In 1997, Gazprom began importing natural gas from Turkmenistan to help fulfill its supply contract with the Netherlands. Since then, Turkmenistan and Russia have had repeated disputes over the pricing of the natural gas resulting in a complete halt to natural gas supplies in 2004. Turkmenistans January 2005 agreement with Russia guarantees initial natural gas exports of 212 bcf in 2005, drastically increasing to 2.4 Tcf in 2007, and remaining at 2.8 Tcf from 2009 to 2028. Turkmenistan maintains that the $1.55/mcf price it agreed to is too low in comparison to the resale value of natural gas in European markets, and it wants to raise the price to $1.76/mcf in 2006 and $2.12/mcf in the following years.
The Kovytka natural gas field, 63 percent owned by TNK-BP, could provide China with natural gas in the next decade via a proposed pipeline. The project is expected to come online in 2006, but would only provide natural gas to local markets. China has stated it is ready to import up to 700 Bcf per year from the project; but since the natural gas would not arrive until 2012 at the earliest and since China is pursuing other natural gas import plans in the meantime, it is possible that Kovytka natural gas will not have a buyer. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Zhukov has expressed support for the plan, while Gazprom and CNPC have set up a strategic agreement to examine a pipelines feasibility. According to statements during the Fall of 2005 from Gazprom, the company is still negotiating with TNK-BP on the extent to which TNK-BP would be involved in the export of the natural gas to China. Gazprom does not favor a direct link from Kovytka to China that is not a part of Gazproms natural gas pipeline network. As a result, Gazprom may even delay development of the project because it anticipates that the fields potential output is much higher than local demand.