Alaskan crude oil production originates mainly from the North Slope, which includes the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) and the State lands surrounding Prudhoe Bay. Because oil and gas producers are prohibited from building permanent roads in NPR-A, exploration and production are expected to be about 30 percent more expensive than is typical for the North Slope of Alaska. Because drilling is currently prohibited in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), AEO2005 does not project any production from ANWR; however, an EIA analysis [Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, SR/OIAF/2004-04] projects that if drilling were allowed, production would start 10 years later and reach 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 if the area contains the mean level of resources (10.4 billion barrels) estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey. 

In the reference case, crude oil production from Alaska is expected to decline to about 810,000 barrels per day in 2010. After 2010, increased production from NPR-A raises Alaska’s total production to about 890,000 barrels per day in 2014. Depletion of the oil resource base in the North Slope, NPR-A, and southern Alaska oil fields is expected to lead to a decline in the State’s total production to about 610,000 barrels per day in 2025. 

As in the lower 48 States, oil production in Alaska is marginally sensitive to projected changes in oil prices. Higher prices make more of the reservoir oil in-place profitable. In 2025, Alaska’s production is projected to be about 100,000 barrels per day above the reference case level in the high A oil price case and 60,000 barrels per day below the reference case level in the low oil price case. 

Source: Energy Information Administration. 2006