Lower 48 crude Oil production is projected to reach 4.4 and 3.9 million barrels per day in 2025 in the rapid and slow technology cases, respectively, compared with 4.1 million barrels per day in the reference case. The technology cases assume the same world oil prices as in the reference case, but the rate of technological progress is assumed to be 50 percent higher (in the rapid technology case) or lower (in the slow technology case) than the historical rate. With domestic oil demand determined largely by oil prices and economic growth rates, consumption is not expected to change significantly in the technology cases. Thus, changes in production resulting from the different rates of technological progress lead to different projected levels of Petroleum imports. In 2025, net petroleum imports are projected to range from 18.5 million barrels per day in the rapid technology case to 19.6 million barrels per day in the slow technology case, as compared with 19.1 million barrels per day in the reference case. 

In the lower 48 States, offshore Crude Oil production is more sensitive than onshore production to changes in technology, because there are more opportunities for technological improvement in the less mature areas offshore, particularly in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Cumulative offshore production from 2004 through 2025 is projected to be 0.7 billion barrels (4.0 percent) higher in the rapid technology case and 0.8 billion barrels (4.7 percent) lower in the slow technology case than in the reference case. Cumulative onshore production is about 0.4 billion barrels (2.0 percent) higher in the rapid oil and gas technology case and 0.4 billion barrels (1.8 percent) lower in the slow technology case than in the reference case.

Source: Energy Information Administration. 2006"