The different paths projected for total U.S. crude oil production in the three world oil price cases reflect differences both in the numbers of new fields developed and in the volumes of oil recovered from existing fields. Total U.S. oil production is only marginally sensitive to crude oil price projections, both because future production is expected to come largely from developed fields, such as Prudhoe Bay, and because development of much of the remaining oil resource base would be uneconomical even with much higher oil prices. In the high A and low world oil price cases, total U.S. production in 2025 is projected at 5.2 and 4.5 million barrels per day, respectively. 

The different price paths in the three cases primarily affect the development and production of lower 48 offshore resources. Smaller deepwater fields that are not profitable when prices are low are expected to become profitable at higher price levels. 

Source: Energy Information Administration. 2006"