In the reference case, total lower 48 crude Oil production is projected to increase from 4.7 million barrels per day in 2003 to 5.4 million barrels per day in 2009, then decline to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2025. In the low oil price case, lower 48 oil production peaks in 2009 at 5.3 million barrels per day, then declines to 3.9 million barrels per day in 2025. In the high A oil price case, lower 48 production peaks in 2009 at 5.4 million barrels per day and declines to 4.5 million barrels per day in 2025. The projected peaks in oil production are attributable to offshore production, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, where deepwater oil production is projected to total 2.3 million barrels per day in 2009. 

Offshore Crude Oil production is more sensitive than onshore production to oil prices, because a smaller portion of offshore oil resources has been depleted. In the reference case, total offshore production (including the Gulf of Mexico and offshore California) rises to 2.7 million barrels per day in 2009, then declines to 2.0 million barrels per day in 2025. In the low and high A price cases, the projections for lower 48 offshore production in 2025 are 1.9 million barrels per day and 2.3 million barrels per day, respectively. Onshore lower 48 oil production is projected to decline in all three cases, with 2025 values ranging from 2.0 million barrels per day in the low price case to 2.2 million barrels per day in the high A price case. 

"Source: Energy Information Administration. 2006"